Projections de l’état de santé de la population québécoise et impacts sur le risque de longévité d’un régime de retraite à prestations déterminées*

The use of COMPAS’s microsimulation techniques allows to study the possible impact of technological progress on population longevity and on the longevity risks incurred by pension plans. The funding ratio for a stylized defined-benefit pension plan could lie between 0.24 and 0.74 in 2050 according to the technological progress scenarios analyzed in this paper, indicating that such plans could run into a considerable funding deficit. The results also indicate that the RRQ’s mortality reduction assumptions seem rather optimistic for the 30-65 year old population, but consistent with the advice of a recent panel of health experts for those 80 years and older.