La pandémie de COVID-19 et ses effets sur les finances publiques du gouvernement du Québec 2020-2035

We are evaluating several scenarios concerning the COVID-19 pandemic and their effects on the public finances of the Government of Quebec by 2035, using the SimFin and SimGen tools developed by our team. Quebec was already grappling with a problem of medium and long-term budgetary sustainability, mainly caused its aging population; we find that the pandemic is moving up the schedule of making difficult choices. As we show that a debt-based strategy – aimed at profiting from low interest rates – is not sustainable in the long term, we suggest some avenues for the next few years.