Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification*

Bounds for subjective survival curves and subjective life expectancy are constructed by interpolating beliefs between data points and by allowing for rounding of the data. This helps explain objective correlations of life expectancy with age and self-reported health. Women expect to live shorter on average than the published life-tables predict, the difference being the largest around the age of 60. Men have expectations that are on average in line with the actuarial forecasts.