Changements démographiques au Québec: vers une décroissance de l’emploi d’ici 2050?*

Using a model that simulates demography and socio-economic behaviours at the individual level, we project the level of employment for Quebec until 2050. The results are contrasted with projections carried out by the Régie des rentes du Québec in 2013, as well as with projections that hold education levels and employment behaviours constant. Despite the aging of the population, which will bring about a shrinking of the working-age population, recent labour market behaviours suggest that Quebec will experience increased employment rates, especially among older workers. Employment growth between 2015 and 2050 should therefore be higher than anticipated. Our results suggest that this growth will dampen the effects of population aging by sustaining economic growth.